print Bitcoin stock-to-flow data

2021-05-12 18:52:14 +03:00 · 2020-06-15 19:39:28 +00:00
parent 59fbac1359
commit fcb5370c29
1 changed files with 69 additions and 0 deletions
--- a/s2f.py
+++ b/s2f.py
@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+import datetime
+import json
+import urllib.request
+import os
+import sys
+
+def infoFromMessari():
+    url = "https://data.messari.io/api/v1/assets/bitcoin/metrics"
+    req = urllib.request.Request(url)
+    r = urllib.request.urlopen(req).read()
+    cont = json.loads(r.decode('utf-8'))
+    if "DEBUG" in os.environ:
+       logger.debug("cont {}".format(cont))
+    fwd_stock_to_flow = cont['data']['supply']['stock_to_flow']
+    # conservative formula: 0.18 * s2f^3.3
+    # aggressive formula:  exp(-1.84) * s2f^3.36
+    # conservative gives slightly lower price
+    fwd_stock_to_flow_usd = 0.18 * fwd_stock_to_flow ** 3.3 # conservative formula: 0.18*s2f^3.3
+    annual_inflation_percent = cont['data']['supply']['annual_inflation_percent']
+    circulating = cont['data']['supply']['circulating']
+    if "DEBUG" in os.environ:
+       logger.debug("Data {} {} {} {}".format(fwd_stock_to_flow, fwd_stock_to_flow_usd, annual_inflation_percent, circulating))
+    # example output: Data 54.73928728956236 98097.8891323435 1.826841468925517 18410936.0981691
+    return float(circulating), float(annual_inflation_percent), float(fwd_stock_to_flow), float(fwd_stock_to_flow_usd)
+
+
+# provides BTC supply on a given date
+def btcSupplyOnDate(date): 
+    url = 'https://community-api.coinmetrics.io/v2/assets/btc/metricdata?metrics=SplyCur&start=' + str(date) + '&end=' + str(date)
+    req = urllib.request.Request(url)
+    r = urllib.request.urlopen(req).read()
+    cont = json.loads(r.decode('utf-8'))
+    supply = cont['metricData']['series'][0]['values'][0]
+    return float(supply)
+
+
+def infoFromCoinMetrics(period):
+    dateYesterday = datetime.date.today() - datetime.timedelta(days=1)
+    datePeriodInit = dateYesterday - datetime.timedelta(days=period)
+    supplyYesterday = btcSupplyOnDate(dateYesterday)
+    supplyPeriodAgo = btcSupplyOnDate(datePeriodInit)
+    stock_to_flow_ratio = supplyPeriodAgo / ((supplyYesterday - supplyPeriodAgo)/period*365)
+    # conservative formula: 0.18*s2f^3.3, see comments above
+    stock_to_flow_usd = 0.18 * stock_to_flow_ratio ** 3.3
+    return stock_to_flow_ratio, stock_to_flow_usd
+
+# Why 463?
+# See: https://twitter.com/digitaliknet/status/1270892084929626112?s=21
+# was 365, then in June 2020 adjusted to 463 as 463 is the value fitting the curve best
+period = 463
+stock_to_flow_ratio, stock_to_flow_usd = infoFromCoinMetrics(period)
+circulating, annual_inflation_percent, fwd_stock_to_flow, fwd_stock_to_flow_usd = infoFromMessari()
+
+if len(sys.argv) > 1:
+    if sys.argv[1].lower() == "-v" or sys.argv[1].lower() == "--verbose":
+        print("This program prints the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow ratio and price.")
+        print("Read about Stock-to-Flow here:    {}".format("https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107"))
+        print("Compare with Stock-to-Flow data:  {}".format("https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/"))
+        print("Compare with Stock-to-Flow graph: {}".format("https://digitalik.net/btc/"))
+
+print("Data sources:                 {}".format("messari.io and coinmetrics.io"))
+print("Calculated for date:          {}".format(datetime.date.today()))
+print("Circulating BTC:              {:,.0f} BTC".format(circulating))
+print("Annual inflation:             {:.2f} %".format(annual_inflation_percent))
+print("Forward stock-to-flow ratio:  {:.2f}".format(fwd_stock_to_flow))
+print("Forward stock-to-flow price:  {:,.0f} USD".format(fwd_stock_to_flow_usd))
+print("Stock-to-flow ratio:          {:.2f}".format(stock_to_flow_ratio))
+print("Stock-to-flow price:          {:,.0f} USD".format(stock_to_flow_usd))